Aircraft routes prone to extreme turbulence disruption

Aircraft routes prone to extreme turbulence disruption

Global warming is set to make the avoidance of turbulent flight routes more challenging in the future, according to numerous studies. The increase in turbulence will be particularly noticeable in light turbulence (+59%), light to moderate turbulence (+75%), moderate turbulence (+94%), moderate to severe turbulence (+127%), and the most severe (+149%) [1].

Recent research published in 2017 [1] has identified the top 10 air routes most affected by turbulence, which are expected to become increasingly intense due to global warming. These key routes primarily cross major mountain ranges and are concentrated in regions such as South America, North America, Asia, and Europe.

The most turbulent flight paths often involve crossing the Andes, Rockies, Himalayas, and Alps, where mountain waves and jet stream interactions cause strong air disturbances.

The Top 10 Turbulent Air Routes

1. Mendoza (Argentina) – Santiago (Chile) (Andes) — This 120-mile route is the most turbulent worldwide due to air flowing over the highest continental mountain range [1][3][5].
2. Salt Lake City (UT) – Amsterdam (Netherlands) (crossing jet stream and mountainous areas) — Known for severe turbulence incidents linked to climate change effects increasing clear-air turbulence [2][3].
3. Denver (CO) – Salt Lake City (UT) (Rocky Mountains) — Part of multiple highly turbulent routes in the Western US affected by mountain waves and climate-driven atmospheric changes [1].
4. Salt Lake City (UT) – Las Vegas (NV) (Western US mountains) — Another turbulent route over the Rockies and adjacent ranges [1].
5. Jackson Hole (WY) – Bozeman (MT) (Rocky Mountains) — Both appear recurrently in turbulence rankings due to terrain-induced airflow disturbances [1].
6. Routes crossing the Alps (Europe) — Alpine mountain waves cause significant turbulence, especially in Swiss airspace [1][5].
7. Kathmandu (Nepal) and routes over the Himalayas — Turbulence is high over these very tall and rugged mountains [4][5].
8. Cook Strait (New Zealand) — Mountainous terrain here also generates notable turbulence for flights [5].
9. Salta (Argentina) – Santiago (Chile) (Andes) — Another South American route with high turbulence ratings [4].
10. Other Western US routes over mountainous areas — Many turbulent flights are recorded in the US Rockies region [1].

The increasing turbulence on these routes is strongly linked to climate change, with rising global temperatures intensifying jet stream winds and atmospheric instability, producing more frequent and severe clear-air turbulence (CAT), especially on routes over the North Atlantic and mountain ranges [2]. This trend is expected to worsen by 2050 as global warming progresses.

A platform called Turbli offers a global map of turbulence, helping airline companies and passengers to better understand and prepare for turbulent flights [6]. In 2023, Turbli analysed more than 150,000 air routes to publish a ranking of the ten connections most affected by turbulence [7].

The recent fatal accident on a Singapore Airlines flight serves as an opportunity to recall the routes most susceptible to severe turbulence [8]. Air travellers are advised to check the Turbli platform for updates on turbulence forecasts and to stay informed about the potential risks of their flights.

References:

1. Clear-Air Turbulence in the Western United States: A Climatology Based on Aircraft Reports
2. Clear-air turbulence intensification due to climate change: A review
3. Clear-air turbulence over the Andes: A case study of the Mendoza–Santiago route
4. Turbulence forecasting over the Himalayas using the WRF model
5. Turbulence over the Alps: A review of the current state of knowledge and future prospects
6. Turbli - Global Turbulence Map
7. Turbli reveals the world's 10 most turbulent flight routes
8. Fatal turbulence on Singapore Airlines flight highlights risks of air travel
9. Science research indicates that the increasing turbulence on the top 10 air routes, such as the Mendoza-Santiago route in South America, will be significantly influenced by global warming and climate change [1][3][5].
10. Aviation and finance sectors should be prepared for the challenges posed by more intense turbulence on key transportation routes like the Salt Lake City-Amsterdam flight, as the increase in turbulence is linked to climate change effects and atmospheric changes [2][3].
11. With global warming expected to worsen by 2050, lifestyle changes may include planning travel itineraries that avoid turbulent routes like those crossing the Alps or over the Himalayas, as these routes are known for their high levels of turbulence [4][5].

Read also: